The Families
There’s nothing cookie cutter or samey-samey here. Cared for by the Tonkawa tribe before Moxie, meaning “we all stay together,” there is a place for everyone here—artists, new entrepreneurs, new collar, blue collar, long-timers, first-time buyers, and downsizers. They all bring their own stories and a special heartbeat to this place, where choosing how you live is as special as where.
Red Oak commissioned a study based on a custom geo-targeted analysis using KANTAR’s MindBase consumer segmentation model, future residents of Moxie will span four different segments.
The Market
Moxie serves Lockhart, areas surrounding Lockhart, and submarket of the Austin MSA, primarily focusing on the Engaged Activists, Ambitious Realists, Pragmatic Pathfinders, Smooth Sailors segments that make up 51% of the overall submarket and nearly 60% of Lockhart. These groups are the most likely to be interested in what Lockhart has to offer and are more likely to be financially qualified to purchase a home in the community. Moxie will prioritize Gen Z Engaged Activists, Millennial Ambitious Realists, and Xer Pragmatic Pathfinders as the primary target customers for Seawillow Ranch, with Boomer Smooth Sailors as the secondary target. This strategic approach leverages the life stages of Moxie’s primary targets, such as marriage, growing households, and caregiving, which all drive home purchasing decisions. In contrast, Boomer Smooth Sailors, many of whom are already established homeowners, will be less inclined to take on the risk of purchasing another home in the current housing market.
Population
The population in Austin continues to reach new heights, with the highest growth seen in over 20 years. (John Burns Research and Consulting August 2024).
Forecast
Recent history has shown that builders thrive when prevailing mortgage rates are between 5.5% and 7% since rate buydowns and other incentives are most effective for the largest number of buyers in this range. (John Burns Research and Consulting August 2024)
Labor Market
The labor market is clearly cooling, lowering the risk of an “overheated” economy leading to renewed inflation. Labor market data like job openings and hires are normalizing but not crashing. (John Burns Research and Consulting August 2024)
New Homes
Transaction volume is expected to increase 10% by the end of 2025 with the annual number of sales increasing through 2027. We forecast new home median prices in Austin to continue appreciating through 2027. Median new home prices have appreciated over the past decade, nearly doubling numbers seen in 2012. (John Burns Research and Consulting August 2024)
Resale Market
There is a floor to housing demand (and supply on the sell-side) as households continue to purchase due to life stage changes. The lock-in effect is also slowly waning, which supports a gradual increase in transaction volumes. (John Burns Research and Consulting August 2024)
More About Moxie
the vision for moxie
What you’ll see day one
marketing program + more
